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Israel will invade Lebanon

Israel is surrounded by hostile states, the IDF war on Gazan civilians is not proceeding according to plan, because there is no plan. Rafah, destroyed with questionable tactics, there are too many civilian deaths ensures the IDF must re-enter northern Gaza where Hamas has re-infiltrated and resume battle tactics. Hamas has proven to be capable of fighting continuously since the IDF invasion last October.

The IDF invasion of Lebanon is imminent with preliminary bombardment shortly. Hezbollah, has tunnels opening northwards in Lebanon to provide shelter for Hezbollah operatives to meet this onslaught. Hezbollah fought the IDF from fixed positions in southern Lebanon in 2006 with IDF Merkava tanks captured and heavy casualties among IDF reservists. 2006 was described as a stalemate, in fact Hezbollah fought the IDF to a standstill. The IDF adept at killing West Bank and Gazan Palestinian civilians and Lebanese civilians, this to the detriment of the IDF whose reputation is besmirched by the use of Palestinians as human shields time and again, there many IDF veterans who object to killing civilians and they have protested outside the Knesset regularly, killing unarmed civilians is not preparation for war.

Mines, cross sighted M60/Degriatev machine guns,self loading, pre-sighted mortars - stolen from US supplied Iraqi Army 2012 by ISIS, mines for tanks, mines for foot soldiers, drones and the peculiar pop up and fire from foxholes encountered by Russian Army Company 9 in Afghanistan is an unnerving experience for attacking forces. Hezbollah fought in the vicious Syrian civil war and have large stockpiles of weapons safely stored.

A battle plan does not survive the first day of action. There is no plan allowing the IDF to capture and retain southern Lebanon. Lebanon is a failed state, the financial collapse and the aftermath of the dock explosion three years ago has exposed the state's functions as inadequate. An invasion of Lebanon will create misery and refugees. Does Israel want a failed state on ts border?

Source:-Irish Times, June 2024.


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